{"id":32424,"date":"2026-10-29T05:01:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T08:01:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/?p=32424"},"modified":"2026-10-29T05:01:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T08:01:07","slug":"superavit-fiscal-el-gobierno-recibio-un-perdon-del-fmi-pero-para-los-economistas-va-a-incumplir-la-meta-anual","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/?p=32424","title":{"rendered":"Super\u00e1vit fiscal: el Gobierno recibi\u00f3 un \u201cperd\u00f3n\u201d del FMI, pero para los economistas va a incumplir la meta anual"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"ai-tools\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"ai-tools-item\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-busy=\"true\" disabled id=\"ai-tool-listen\"><span class=\"ai-tools-icon\"><svg width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M14.99 9.22417C14.89 8.65466 14.5799 8.25501 14.0497 8.0352C14.0096 8.01522 13.9696 7.94528 13.9696 7.90532C13.9196 6.81627 13.6395 5.79716 13.0493 4.86797C12.0589 3.28934 10.6484 2.3102 8.80779 2.06042C6.8771 1.80064 5.1965 2.38014 3.81601 3.76893C2.69561 4.89794 2.10539 6.28673 2.04537 7.89533C2.04537 7.97526 2.01536 8.00523 1.94534 8.0352C1.35513 8.29498 1.03501 8.77456 1.01501 9.42399C0.994998 10.4731 0.994998 11.5222 1.01501 12.5712C1.02501 13.2507 1.53519 13.8701 2.19543 13.96C2.64559 14.02 3.10575 13.97 3.58592 13.97V13.8102C3.58592 11.9818 3.58592 10.1434 3.58592 8.31496C3.58592 7.93529 3.61593 7.54563 3.69596 7.16596C3.88603 6.2068 4.34619 5.38751 5.06645 4.73808C6.21686 3.69899 7.55734 3.34929 9.05788 3.71897C10.2483 4.00872 11.1486 4.7181 11.7889 5.78716C12.259 6.56648 12.4291 7.42573 12.4291 8.32495C12.4291 10.1534 12.4291 11.9918 12.4291 13.8301V14C12.8492 14 13.2494 14 13.6495 14C14.0497 13.99 14.3698 13.8002 14.6299 13.5004C14.8299 13.2706 14.93 12.9909 15 12.6911V9.29411C15 9.29411 14.98 9.26413 14.98 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class=\"ai-tools-label\">Escuchar<\/span><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"ai-tools-item\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-busy=\"true\" disabled id=\"ai-tool-keypoints\"><span class=\"ai-tools-icon\"><svg width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5.99679 1H12.4609C13.0887 1 13.6 1.52731 13.6 2.17489V13.8251C13.6 14.4727 13.0887 15 12.4609 15H3.53913C2.91126 15 2.39999 14.4727 2.39999 13.8251V9.19802V4.57092L5.99679 1Z\" stroke=\"#e46211\" stroke-width=\"1.2\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"><\/path><path d=\"M2.39999 5.38502H6.94416V3.94555V1\" stroke=\"#e46211\" stroke-width=\"1.2\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"><\/path><path d=\"M10.491 12.2L5.50657 12.2C5.32834 12.2 5.2037 11.8667 5.20008 11.517C5.19587 11.1484 5.32111 10.8 5.50657 10.8L10.4813 10.8C10.6632 10.8 10.795 11.105 10.7998 11.4804C10.8047 11.8341 10.6842 12.2 10.491 12.2Z\" fill=\"#e46211\"><\/path><path d=\"M10.491 9.4L5.50657 9.4C5.32834 9.4 5.2037 9.0666 5.20008 8.71694C5.19587 8.34831 5.32111 8 5.50657 8L10.4813 8C10.6632 8 10.795 8.30494 10.7998 8.68035C10.8047 9.03408 10.6842 9.4 10.491 9.4Z\" fill=\"#e46211\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"ai-tools-label\">Puntos clave<\/span><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"ai-tools-item\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-busy=\"true\" disabled id=\"ai-tool-summary\"><span class=\"ai-tools-icon\"><svg width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M10.1798 2.50989H2.00488C1.45082 2.50989 0.999667 2.97515 0.999667 3.54653V13.8259C0.999667 14.3973 1.45082 14.8626 2.00488 14.8626H9.87772C10.4318 14.8626 10.8829 14.3973 10.8829 13.8259V9.74329V8.13118\" stroke=\"#e46211\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"><\/path><path d=\"M10.1892 0.937134C10.6648 0.938475 11.1562 1.16366 11.4167 1.62561C11.55 1.86167 11.6275 2.09395 11.6863 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7.3487 6.17847 7.27405C5.75409 7.12455 5.32309 6.86818 5.22729 6.30334C5.147 5.82785 5.20205 5.46325 5.37769 5.1842C5.55162 4.90818 5.8236 4.74853 6.1062 4.63733C6.38303 4.52841 6.70997 4.45202 6.99292 4.36975C7.28806 4.28393 7.55375 4.18824 7.76538 4.03772L7.93726 3.90491C8.30541 3.59437 8.45094 3.27848 8.54761 2.94592C8.60838 2.73677 8.64117 2.55614 8.70288 2.32092C8.76088 2.09995 8.83661 1.86635 8.96655 1.62756L9.073 1.4635C9.34447 1.10658 9.7727 0.936014 10.1892 0.937134ZM10.1785 3.151C9.91182 3.94374 9.55711 4.56476 9.04956 5.04163C8.6241 5.44134 8.10162 5.72923 7.45972 5.93909C8.77264 6.36001 9.87121 7.38936 10.2097 8.74377C10.4707 7.9695 10.8197 7.33816 11.3201 6.85217C11.7453 6.43925 12.271 6.142 12.9216 5.94495C11.6239 5.4965 10.5274 4.50683 10.1785 3.151Z\" fill=\"#e46211\" stroke=\"var(--gray-10)\" stroke-width=\"0.4\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"ai-tools-label\">Resumen<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<div class=\"visual__image image-initial-width\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/MCC6BQWGA5EQ7IHDKLYG6PBU3A.png?auth=80f8fad674c1d8d493efe2ac2b4b4ade64404521313dfae6610800a18a2463db&amp;smart=true&amp;width=992&amp;height=560&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 1000px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/MCC6BQWGA5EQ7IHDKLYG6PBU3A.png?auth=80f8fad674c1d8d493efe2ac2b4b4ade64404521313dfae6610800a18a2463db&amp;smart=true&amp;width=768&amp;height=433&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/MCC6BQWGA5EQ7IHDKLYG6PBU3A.png?auth=80f8fad674c1d8d493efe2ac2b4b4ade64404521313dfae6610800a18a2463db&amp;smart=true&amp;width=577&amp;height=325&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 580px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/MCC6BQWGA5EQ7IHDKLYG6PBU3A.png?auth=80f8fad674c1d8d493efe2ac2b4b4ade64404521313dfae6610800a18a2463db&amp;smart=true&amp;width=420&amp;height=237&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 350px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/MCC6BQWGA5EQ7IHDKLYG6PBU3A.png?auth=80f8fad674c1d8d493efe2ac2b4b4ade64404521313dfae6610800a18a2463db&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=197&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 80px)\"><\/source><img alt=\"Luis Caputo Argentina Week\" class=\"global-image\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"537\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/MCC6BQWGA5EQ7IHDKLYG6PBU3A.png?auth=80f8fad674c1d8d493efe2ac2b4b4ade64404521313dfae6610800a18a2463db&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=197&amp;quality=85\" width=\"952\"><\/picture><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-container display_flex sharebar-new\" style=\"opacity:1\">\n<div class=\"share-bar-article-date-container \"><span class=\"sharebar-article-date\">29 Oct, 2026 03:03 a. m. EST<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-buttons-container display_flex\">\n<div aria-label=\"Guardar\" class=\"sharebar-buttons button-save\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"9\" height=\"12\" viewbox=\"0 0 8 10\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"saved-icon saved\"><path d=\"M6.64286 0.5V9.31687L4.1116 7.16407L4.11106 7.16361C3.79894 6.89891 3.34392 6.89891 3.03179 7.16361L3.03126 7.16407L0.5 9.31687V0.5H6.64286Z\"><\/path><\/svg><span class=\"buttons-save-text\">Guardar<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-buttons-separator\"><\/div>\n<p><button class=\"sharemenu-buttons display_flex\" aria-label=\"Compartir en Telegram\"><svg width=\"38\" height=\"38\" viewbox=\"0 0 38 38\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><rect x=\"0.5\" y=\"0.5\" width=\"37\" height=\"37\" rx=\"18.5\" fill=\"white\"><\/rect><rect x=\"0.5\" y=\"0.5\" width=\"37\" height=\"37\" rx=\"18.5\" stroke=\"#C2C2C2\"><\/rect><path d=\"M24.9696 12.5511L10.3405 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15.0383 17.6243C15.1805 18.3619 15.5983 18.9663 16.0426 19.5618C16.887 20.6638 17.8646 21.6237 19.1622 22.1925C19.7932 22.4769 20.4331 22.7613 21.1441 22.7613C21.2685 22.7613 21.393 22.7613 21.5085 22.7346C22.4506 22.5391 23.1172 22.0058 23.0816 21.0193C23.0816 20.9216 23.0194 20.7794 22.9483 20.7438C22.3973 20.4594 21.8462 20.2017 21.2863 19.9439Z\" fill=\"#555555\"><\/path><path d=\"M26.9482 17.8724C26.3972 13.4642 22.1401 10.3447 17.7229 11.1179C12.6481 11.9977 9.71521 17.2859 11.6883 21.9963C12.1948 22.6629 12.0615 23.3472 11.8216 24.0849C11.5105 25.027 11.2794 26.0046 11.0039 27C11.1194 26.9733 11.1994 26.9644 11.2794 26.9378C12.5059 26.6178 13.7324 26.3068 14.9411 25.9868C15.1544 25.9335 15.3144 25.9602 15.5099 26.0579C17.1719 26.8667 18.9227 27.0978 20.718 26.7067C24.833 25.7913 27.4548 22.0496 26.9305 17.8902L26.9482 17.8724ZM20.0515 25.4624C18.4784 25.7113 17.003 25.3913 15.6166 24.6003C15.5099 24.5381 15.3411 24.5115 15.2077 24.547C14.4612 24.7248 13.7146 24.9292 12.9147 25.1336C13.1192 24.3693 13.3058 23.6672 13.5102 22.9473C13.5635 22.7606 13.5369 22.6273 13.4391 22.4673C11.0039 18.5479 13.1014 13.5442 17.6163 12.5043C21.2868 11.6511 25.0285 14.1841 25.5884 17.908C26.1395 21.5519 23.6954 24.8936 20.0515 25.4624Z\" fill=\"#555555\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"1\">El <i>staff <\/i>del <b>Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI)<\/b> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/economia\/2026\/10\/28\/el-gobierno-debe-afrontar-un-pago-de-usd-800-millones-al-fmi-y-analiza-dos-caminos-usar-dolares-propios-o-comprarlos-al-bcra\/\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/economia\/2026\/10\/28\/el-gobierno-debe-afrontar-un-pago-de-usd-800-millones-al-fmi-y-analiza-dos-caminos-usar-dolares-propios-o-comprarlos-al-bcra\/\">aprob\u00f3<\/a> la tercera revisi\u00f3n del acuerdo pese a que el Gobierno incumpli\u00f3 por poco la meta fiscal de junio, fijada en <b>0,7% del Producto Interno Bruto (PBI)<\/b>. El desv\u00edo -en gran parte- se explic\u00f3 por la postergaci\u00f3n de la presentaci\u00f3n de la declaraci\u00f3n jurada de Ganancias. La se\u00f1al del organismo funcion\u00f3 como un \u201cperd\u00f3n\u201d frente a ese incumplimiento, aunque dej\u00f3 abierto el debate sobre la posibilidad de alcanzar el objetivo de <b>super\u00e1vit primario de 1,4% del PBI<\/b> previsto para diciembre de 2026.<\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-1\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"2\">El comunicado difundido por el FMI sostuvo que la meta fiscal mantiene un lugar central dentro del programa. El organismo vincul\u00f3 esa pauta con el objetivo de alcanzar un super\u00e1vit primario de <b>1,4% del PBI<\/b> en 2026 y un esfuerzo similar en 2027, seg\u00fan las previsiones que el Gobierno incorpor\u00f3 al presupuesto enviado al Congreso.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-inline ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"inline\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"3\">\u201cEl ancla fiscal seguir\u00e1 siendo un elemento central del programa, coherente con el objetivo de lograr un super\u00e1vit primario del <b>1,4% del PIB <\/b>en 2026 y un esfuerzo fiscal similar en 2027\u201d, indic\u00f3 el Fondo. Tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1al\u00f3 que el presupuesto de 2027 reflej\u00f3 esa orientaci\u00f3n y proyect\u00f3 un cuarto a\u00f1o consecutivo con super\u00e1vit fiscal primario y equilibrio fiscal global.<\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-3\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"4\">El organismo internacional afirm\u00f3 que la continuidad de la disciplina sobre el gasto, junto con reformas en los marcos tributario y fiscal, reforzar\u00eda el proceso de consolidaci\u00f3n. A la vez, plante\u00f3 que esa estrategia permitir\u00eda proteger el gasto prioritario en materia social y de infraestructura.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline_2 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-inline ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"inline_2\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"text-align-left vertical-align-top line-height-100 header headline-class-h2 headline\" id='nuevo-\"perdon\"'>Nuevo \u201cperd\u00f3n\u201d<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"5\">La aprobaci\u00f3n de la tercera revisi\u00f3n dej\u00f3 en evidencia que el incumplimiento de junio no bloque\u00f3 el avance del programa y que el FMI se lo perdon\u00f3 al Gobierno. Ahora el foco de los economistas est\u00e1 en la exigencia pendiente para diciembre. La pauta anual establece un super\u00e1vit primario de <b>1,4% del PBI<\/b>, un nivel superior al objetivo de junio. Las dudas se apoyan en la evoluci\u00f3n de los ingresos p\u00fablicos, el comportamiento de la actividad y las restricciones para profundizar recortes sobre el gasto.<\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-5\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"6\"><b>Manuel Cerdan<\/b>, socio y director de <b>Invecq Consulting<\/b>, sostuvo que no espera el cumplimiento del objetivo de diciembre. \u201c<b>No creemos que se vaya a cumplir la meta de diciembre<\/b>, aunque habr\u00e1 que ver si se modifica tras el desv\u00edo de junio\u201d, afirm\u00f3.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_1 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_1\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"visual__image\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/7K46GJKHQBDR3OPFRZ7ZUGSCDU.jpg?auth=77ada9bb581a119a85979ff5639c30c09bab2edf39b9f8a2fb2a7b1243b28351&amp;smart=true&amp;width=992&amp;height=661&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 1000px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/7K46GJKHQBDR3OPFRZ7ZUGSCDU.jpg?auth=77ada9bb581a119a85979ff5639c30c09bab2edf39b9f8a2fb2a7b1243b28351&amp;smart=true&amp;width=768&amp;height=512&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/7K46GJKHQBDR3OPFRZ7ZUGSCDU.jpg?auth=77ada9bb581a119a85979ff5639c30c09bab2edf39b9f8a2fb2a7b1243b28351&amp;smart=true&amp;width=577&amp;height=385&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 580px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/7K46GJKHQBDR3OPFRZ7ZUGSCDU.jpg?auth=77ada9bb581a119a85979ff5639c30c09bab2edf39b9f8a2fb2a7b1243b28351&amp;smart=true&amp;width=420&amp;height=280&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 350px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/7K46GJKHQBDR3OPFRZ7ZUGSCDU.jpg?auth=77ada9bb581a119a85979ff5639c30c09bab2edf39b9f8a2fb2a7b1243b28351&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=233&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 80px)\"><\/source><img alt=\"El personal del FMI aprob\u00f3 la tercera revisi\u00f3n del acuerdo por lo que perdon\u00f3 el incumplimiento de la meta fiscal del primer semestre. (AP Foto\/Gustavo Garello)\" class=\"global-image\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"low\" height=\"2458\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/7K46GJKHQBDR3OPFRZ7ZUGSCDU.jpg?auth=77ada9bb581a119a85979ff5639c30c09bab2edf39b9f8a2fb2a7b1243b28351&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=233&amp;quality=85\" width=\"3687\"><\/picture><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"7\">Cerdan ubic\u00f3 dos factores detr\u00e1s de su proyecci\u00f3n. El primero se relacion\u00f3 con la recaudaci\u00f3n. \u201cLos ingresos vienen d\u00e9biles, en buena medida por la din\u00e1mica de la actividad\u201d, explic\u00f3. El segundo apunt\u00f3 a los l\u00edmites que enfrenta el ajuste fiscal luego del recorte realizado sobre el gasto p\u00fablico.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"text-align-left vertical-align-top line-height-100 header headline-class-h2 headline\" id=\"sin-margen-para-ajustar\">Sin margen para ajustar<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"8\">\u201c<b>El margen para seguir ajustando el gasto es cada vez m\u00e1s acotado<\/b>, dado que el grueso del ajuste ya se hizo y una parte muy importante del gasto est\u00e1 indexada\u201d, indic\u00f3 el economista. Esa combinaci\u00f3n, seg\u00fan su an\u00e1lisis, reduce las herramientas disponibles para compensar una menor entrada de recursos.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"9\">Pese a esa estimaci\u00f3n, Cerdan no anticip\u00f3 una dificultad relevante en el v\u00ednculo con el Fondo. \u201cDe todos modos, no creemos que esto represente un problema significativo en el marco del acuerdo con el FMI\u201d, sostuvo. Su planteo dej\u00f3 abierta la posibilidad de que el organismo considere el contexto del programa y el tama\u00f1o del eventual desv\u00edo.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_2 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_2\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"10\">La posibilidad de un cambio formal en la pauta de diciembre tambi\u00e9n apareci\u00f3 en el an\u00e1lisis de <b>Hern\u00e1n Letcher<\/b>, director del <b>Centro de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica Argentina (CEPA)<\/b>. Para el economista, la meta resulta dif\u00edcil de cumplir; el Gobierno y el FMI podr\u00edan optar por modificar el objetivo antes del cierre del a\u00f1o o por habilitar una excepci\u00f3n cuando llegue la revisi\u00f3n correspondiente.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"11\"><b>\u201cPueden pasar dos cosas: que en esta revisi\u00f3n le modifiquen la meta de diciembre o que le hagan un <\/b><i><b>waiver<\/b><\/i>\u201d, se\u00f1al\u00f3. El t\u00e9rmino refiere a una dispensa frente al incumplimiento de una meta acordada dentro de un programa con el Fondo.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_3 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_3\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"12\">El director de CEPA sostuvo que la dificultad crece a medida que se reduce el excedente fiscal. \u201cLa meta fiscal se vuelve cada vez m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil porque el super\u00e1vit es cada vez menor\u201d, afirm\u00f3. A partir de ese punto, plante\u00f3 un interrogante sobre las medidas que podr\u00eda tomar el Gobierno frente a la combinaci\u00f3n de un incumplimiento fiscal y un deterioro de la actividad.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"text-align-left vertical-align-top line-height-100 header headline-class-h2 headline\" id=\"menores-ingresos-por-actividad\">Menores ingresos por actividad<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"13\"><b>Fausto Spotorno<\/b>, director del <b>Instituto de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica, Econom\u00eda y Negocios (Ineco)<\/b>, tambi\u00e9n proyect\u00f3 un incumplimiento fiscal acotado. Su an\u00e1lisis se concentr\u00f3 en la ca\u00edda del nivel de actividad, la recaudaci\u00f3n y el incremento de algunas partidas del gasto.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_4 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_4\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"14\">\u201cEn el segundo trimestre cay\u00f3 el PBI y en el tercer trimestre tambi\u00e9n va a caer, con los datos que tenemos ya lo podemos asegurar\u201d, afirm\u00f3. Para el economista, ese escenario configur\u00f3 dos trimestres negativos y recesivos, con consecuencias directas sobre los ingresos tributarios.<\/p>\n<div class=\"visual__image\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/K22AU4FHF5F7VKCP2J3SJ7QRJ4.jpg?auth=61c47da3c5a7ba71a03994884d8cab03be60e56eeb28921a2b9226ca885a129f&amp;smart=true&amp;width=992&amp;height=558&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 1000px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/K22AU4FHF5F7VKCP2J3SJ7QRJ4.jpg?auth=61c47da3c5a7ba71a03994884d8cab03be60e56eeb28921a2b9226ca885a129f&amp;smart=true&amp;width=768&amp;height=432&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/K22AU4FHF5F7VKCP2J3SJ7QRJ4.jpg?auth=61c47da3c5a7ba71a03994884d8cab03be60e56eeb28921a2b9226ca885a129f&amp;smart=true&amp;width=577&amp;height=325&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 580px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/K22AU4FHF5F7VKCP2J3SJ7QRJ4.jpg?auth=61c47da3c5a7ba71a03994884d8cab03be60e56eeb28921a2b9226ca885a129f&amp;smart=true&amp;width=420&amp;height=236&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 350px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/K22AU4FHF5F7VKCP2J3SJ7QRJ4.jpg?auth=61c47da3c5a7ba71a03994884d8cab03be60e56eeb28921a2b9226ca885a129f&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=197&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 80px)\"><\/source><img alt=\"Actividad automotriz\" class=\"global-image\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"low\" height=\"1080\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/K22AU4FHF5F7VKCP2J3SJ7QRJ4.jpg?auth=61c47da3c5a7ba71a03994884d8cab03be60e56eeb28921a2b9226ca885a129f&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=197&amp;quality=85\" width=\"1920\"><\/picture><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"15\">\u201cHubo dos trimestres negativos, recesivos, y eso provoca una ca\u00edda en la recaudaci\u00f3n por un lado\u201d, explic\u00f3. La menor actividad, seg\u00fan su lectura, redujo el flujo de recursos que ingresa al Estado y complic\u00f3 el cumplimiento de una meta fiscal exigente para el cierre de 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"16\">Tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1al\u00f3 el impacto de la inflaci\u00f3n sobre el gasto. Seg\u00fan explic\u00f3, la aceleraci\u00f3n inflacionaria del primer trimestre llev\u00f3 a ajustes de jubilaciones durante el segundo trimestre. Esa din\u00e1mica sum\u00f3 presi\u00f3n sobre las erogaciones p\u00fablicas en un contexto donde el margen para recortar partidas se redujo. \u201cA su vez, recortar gastos para el Gobierno es cada vez m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil; est\u00e1 a nivel de gasto de los 90\u201d, indic\u00f3. El director de Ineco sostuvo que el gasto p\u00fablico primario ya lleg\u00f3 a un nivel que limita la posibilidad de nuevos ajustes.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_5 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_5\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"17\">Para Spotorno, el Gobierno va a incumplir la meta fiscal aunque por poco, por una o dos d\u00e9cimas por debajo de lo que se hab\u00eda proyectado. La diferencia estimada se ubicar\u00eda, seg\u00fan esa evaluaci\u00f3n, dentro de un margen estrecho respecto del objetivo de <b>1,4% del PBI<\/b> fijado para el a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EscucharPuntos claveResumen 29 Oct, 2026 03:03 a. m. EST Guardar El staff del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) aprob\u00f3 la tercera revisi\u00f3n del acuerdo pese a que el Gobierno incumpli\u00f3 por poco la meta fiscal de junio, fijada en 0,7% del Producto Interno Bruto (PBI). El desv\u00edo -en gran parte- se explic\u00f3 por la postergaci\u00f3n de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=32424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32424\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=32424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=32424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=32424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}