{"id":28236,"date":"2026-09-27T17:20:45","date_gmt":"2026-09-27T20:20:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/?p=28236"},"modified":"2026-09-27T17:20:45","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T20:20:45","slug":"el-j-p-morgan-recorto-su-prevision-de-crecimiento-para-la-argentina-tras-el-desplome-de-la-actividad-en-julio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/?p=28236","title":{"rendered":"El J.P. Morgan recort\u00f3 su previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento para la Argentina tras el desplome de la actividad en julio"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"ai-tools\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"ai-tools-item\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-busy=\"true\" disabled id=\"ai-tool-listen\"><span class=\"ai-tools-icon\"><svg width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M14.99 9.22417C14.89 8.65466 14.5799 8.25501 14.0497 8.0352C14.0096 8.01522 13.9696 7.94528 13.9696 7.90532C13.9196 6.81627 13.6395 5.79716 13.0493 4.86797C12.0589 3.28934 10.6484 2.3102 8.80779 2.06042C6.8771 1.80064 5.1965 2.38014 3.81601 3.76893C2.69561 4.89794 2.10539 6.28673 2.04537 7.89533C2.04537 7.97526 2.01536 8.00523 1.94534 8.0352C1.35513 8.29498 1.03501 8.77456 1.01501 9.42399C0.994998 10.4731 0.994998 11.5222 1.01501 12.5712C1.02501 13.2507 1.53519 13.8701 2.19543 13.96C2.64559 14.02 3.10575 13.97 3.58592 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d=\"M11.2587 8.08516C11.0386 8.16509 10.9185 8.36492 10.9185 8.66465C10.9185 10.2333 10.9185 11.8119 10.9185 13.3805C10.9185 13.4405 10.9185 13.4904 10.9285 13.5504C10.9586 13.7902 11.1686 13.98 11.4087 13.99C11.7188 14 11.9489 13.7802 11.9489 13.4405C11.9489 12.6412 11.9489 11.8319 11.9489 11.0326V10.1933C11.9489 9.65379 11.9489 9.10427 11.9489 8.56474C11.9489 8.19506 11.5888 7.95527 11.2587 8.08516Z\" fill=\"#e46211\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"ai-tools-label\">Escuchar<\/span><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"ai-tools-item\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-busy=\"true\" disabled id=\"ai-tool-keypoints\"><span class=\"ai-tools-icon\"><svg width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5.99679 1H12.4609C13.0887 1 13.6 1.52731 13.6 2.17489V13.8251C13.6 14.4727 13.0887 15 12.4609 15H3.53913C2.91126 15 2.39999 14.4727 2.39999 13.8251V9.19802V4.57092L5.99679 1Z\" stroke=\"#e46211\" stroke-width=\"1.2\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"><\/path><path d=\"M2.39999 5.38502H6.94416V3.94555V1\" stroke=\"#e46211\" stroke-width=\"1.2\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"><\/path><path d=\"M10.491 12.2L5.50657 12.2C5.32834 12.2 5.2037 11.8667 5.20008 11.517C5.19587 11.1484 5.32111 10.8 5.50657 10.8L10.4813 10.8C10.6632 10.8 10.795 11.105 10.7998 11.4804C10.8047 11.8341 10.6842 12.2 10.491 12.2Z\" fill=\"#e46211\"><\/path><path d=\"M10.491 9.4L5.50657 9.4C5.32834 9.4 5.2037 9.0666 5.20008 8.71694C5.19587 8.34831 5.32111 8 5.50657 8L10.4813 8C10.6632 8 10.795 8.30494 10.7998 8.68035C10.8047 9.03408 10.6842 9.4 10.491 9.4Z\" fill=\"#e46211\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"ai-tools-label\">Puntos clave<\/span><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"ai-tools-item\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-busy=\"true\" disabled id=\"ai-tool-summary\"><span class=\"ai-tools-icon\"><svg width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M10.1798 2.50989H2.00488C1.45082 2.50989 0.999667 2.97515 0.999667 3.54653V13.8259C0.999667 14.3973 1.45082 14.8626 2.00488 14.8626H9.87772C10.4318 14.8626 10.8829 14.3973 10.8829 13.8259V9.74329V8.13118\" stroke=\"#e46211\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"><\/path><path d=\"M10.1892 0.937134C10.6648 0.938475 11.1562 1.16366 11.4167 1.62561C11.55 1.86167 11.6275 2.09395 11.6863 2.31506C11.7155 2.42487 11.7409 2.53449 11.7654 2.63831C11.7901 2.74317 11.8143 2.84342 11.8425 2.94202C11.9524 3.32501 12.1244 3.68637 12.6199 4.0387C12.813 4.1759 13.0533 4.26585 13.323 4.34534C13.5791 4.42077 13.8884 4.49238 14.1492 4.58362C14.4177 4.6776 14.6844 4.80688 14.8826 5.02698C15.086 5.25292 15.1994 5.55472 15.2 5.95667C15.2005 6.36975 15.0629 6.67221 14.8289 6.89612C14.6041 7.11103 14.3039 7.24024 14.0056 7.34241C13.8552 7.39392 13.6973 7.44108 13.5447 7.48792C13.3904 7.53527 13.2391 7.5828 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9.55711 4.56476 9.04956 5.04163C8.6241 5.44134 8.10162 5.72923 7.45972 5.93909C8.77264 6.36001 9.87121 7.38936 10.2097 8.74377C10.4707 7.9695 10.8197 7.33816 11.3201 6.85217C11.7453 6.43925 12.271 6.142 12.9216 5.94495C11.6239 5.4965 10.5274 4.50683 10.1785 3.151Z\" fill=\"#e46211\" stroke=\"var(--gray-10)\" stroke-width=\"0.4\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"ai-tools-label\">Resumen<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<div class=\"visual__image image-initial-width\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4MNWLD25SRGXTMYVP3TRJ5K2KY.jpg?auth=ceaed083019f2da3832f29100eac78ac9c64e4ee2eadcdd4a2bc2ec76490ff3a&amp;smart=true&amp;width=992&amp;height=662&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 1000px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4MNWLD25SRGXTMYVP3TRJ5K2KY.jpg?auth=ceaed083019f2da3832f29100eac78ac9c64e4ee2eadcdd4a2bc2ec76490ff3a&amp;smart=true&amp;width=768&amp;height=513&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4MNWLD25SRGXTMYVP3TRJ5K2KY.jpg?auth=ceaed083019f2da3832f29100eac78ac9c64e4ee2eadcdd4a2bc2ec76490ff3a&amp;smart=true&amp;width=577&amp;height=385&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 580px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4MNWLD25SRGXTMYVP3TRJ5K2KY.jpg?auth=ceaed083019f2da3832f29100eac78ac9c64e4ee2eadcdd4a2bc2ec76490ff3a&amp;smart=true&amp;width=420&amp;height=280&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 350px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4MNWLD25SRGXTMYVP3TRJ5K2KY.jpg?auth=ceaed083019f2da3832f29100eac78ac9c64e4ee2eadcdd4a2bc2ec76490ff3a&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=234&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 80px)\"><\/source><img alt=\"Se ve un logotipo de J.P.Morgan en la ciudad de Nueva York, Estados Unidos, 10 de enero de 2017. REUTERS \/ Stephanie Keith \/ Foto de archivo\" class=\"global-image\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"534\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4MNWLD25SRGXTMYVP3TRJ5K2KY.jpg?auth=ceaed083019f2da3832f29100eac78ac9c64e4ee2eadcdd4a2bc2ec76490ff3a&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=234&amp;quality=85\" width=\"800\"><\/picture><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-container display_flex sharebar-new\" style=\"opacity:1\">\n<div class=\"share-bar-article-date-container \"><span class=\"sharebar-article-date\">27 Sep, 2026 04:11 p. m. EST<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-buttons-container display_flex\">\n<div aria-label=\"Guardar\" class=\"sharebar-buttons button-save\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"9\" height=\"12\" viewbox=\"0 0 8 10\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"saved-icon saved\"><path d=\"M6.64286 0.5V9.31687L4.1116 7.16407L4.11106 7.16361C3.79894 6.89891 3.34392 6.89891 3.03179 7.16361L3.03126 7.16407L0.5 9.31687V0.5H6.64286Z\"><\/path><\/svg><span class=\"buttons-save-text\">Guardar<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-buttons-separator\"><\/div>\n<p><button class=\"sharemenu-buttons display_flex\" aria-label=\"Compartir en Telegram\"><svg width=\"38\" height=\"38\" viewbox=\"0 0 38 38\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><rect x=\"0.5\" y=\"0.5\" width=\"37\" height=\"37\" rx=\"18.5\" fill=\"white\"><\/rect><rect x=\"0.5\" y=\"0.5\" width=\"37\" height=\"37\" rx=\"18.5\" stroke=\"#C2C2C2\"><\/rect><path d=\"M24.9696 12.5511L10.3405 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15.0383 17.6243C15.1805 18.3619 15.5983 18.9663 16.0426 19.5618C16.887 20.6638 17.8646 21.6237 19.1622 22.1925C19.7932 22.4769 20.4331 22.7613 21.1441 22.7613C21.2685 22.7613 21.393 22.7613 21.5085 22.7346C22.4506 22.5391 23.1172 22.0058 23.0816 21.0193C23.0816 20.9216 23.0194 20.7794 22.9483 20.7438C22.3973 20.4594 21.8462 20.2017 21.2863 19.9439Z\" fill=\"#555555\"><\/path><path d=\"M26.9482 17.8724C26.3972 13.4642 22.1401 10.3447 17.7229 11.1179C12.6481 11.9977 9.71521 17.2859 11.6883 21.9963C12.1948 22.6629 12.0615 23.3472 11.8216 24.0849C11.5105 25.027 11.2794 26.0046 11.0039 27C11.1194 26.9733 11.1994 26.9644 11.2794 26.9378C12.5059 26.6178 13.7324 26.3068 14.9411 25.9868C15.1544 25.9335 15.3144 25.9602 15.5099 26.0579C17.1719 26.8667 18.9227 27.0978 20.718 26.7067C24.833 25.7913 27.4548 22.0496 26.9305 17.8902L26.9482 17.8724ZM20.0515 25.4624C18.4784 25.7113 17.003 25.3913 15.6166 24.6003C15.5099 24.5381 15.3411 24.5115 15.2077 24.547C14.4612 24.7248 13.7146 24.9292 12.9147 25.1336C13.1192 24.3693 13.3058 23.6672 13.5102 22.9473C13.5635 22.7606 13.5369 22.6273 13.4391 22.4673C11.0039 18.5479 13.1014 13.5442 17.6163 12.5043C21.2868 11.6511 25.0285 14.1841 25.5884 17.908C26.1395 21.5519 23.6954 24.8936 20.0515 25.4624Z\" fill=\"#555555\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"1\">J.P. Morgan, el banco m\u00e1s grande de los Estados Unidos, r<b>edujo a 1,5% su proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento<\/b> para la econom\u00eda argentina en 2026 luego de que la actividad <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/economia\/2026\/09\/25\/la-actividad-economica-volvio-a-caer-en-julio-que-sectores-explican-el-retroceso-y-por-que-preocupa-el-tercer-trimestre\/\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/economia\/2026\/09\/25\/la-actividad-economica-volvio-a-caer-en-julio-que-sectores-explican-el-retroceso-y-por-que-preocupa-el-tercer-trimestre\/\">se desplomara un 2,9% en julio respecto de junio. <\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-1\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"2\">\u201cEsper\u00e1bamos un dato d\u00e9bil de actividad, consistente con el contexto fr\u00e1gil que caracteriz\u00f3 el segundo trimestre, pero el dato informado (por el Indec) excedi\u00f3 significativamente nuestro pron\u00f3stico\u201d, dice un informe fechado el viernes y firmado por los analistas <b>Lucila Barbeito y Diego Pereira<\/b>. De hecho, el dato del Indec casi triplic\u00f3 la ca\u00edda del 1% del nivel de actividad que hab\u00eda previsto el banco norteamericano. <\/p>\n<div class=\"inline ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-inline ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"inline\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"3\">Por esa raz\u00f3n, J.P.Morgan espera ahora <b>una contracci\u00f3n anualizada de 4% durante el tercer trimestre del a\u00f1o<\/b>. La ca\u00edda del nivel de actividad en julio, subray\u00f3 el informe, es la mayor ca\u00edda mensual desde abril de 2020. Si se excluye la pandemia, la crisis financiera de 2008 y el per\u00edodo de tensi\u00f3n de 2018 y 2019, agreg\u00f3 J.P.Morgan, desde 2004 no hubo en la econom\u00eda argentina una ca\u00edda de esa magnitud.<\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-3\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"4\">El dato de julio implic\u00f3 tambi\u00e9n<b> una ca\u00edda del 1,4 respecto del mismo mes de 2025<\/b> y desestacionalizado qued\u00f3 4,5% por debajo del m\u00e1ximo alcanzado en marzo de 2026, mientras que el crecimiento acumulado entre enero y julio se redujo a 1,7%, desde 2,2% hasta junio, precis\u00f3 el informe.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline_2 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-inline ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"inline_2\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"visual__image\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/6N64VXA6YJCE3MTRYM4PE3LYXY.png?auth=ce2656d61bf9173b52bc7b9dc2ad0da1d6a2e7d351cb953c971e6fbcbec52479&amp;smart=true&amp;width=992&amp;height=618&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 1000px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/6N64VXA6YJCE3MTRYM4PE3LYXY.png?auth=ce2656d61bf9173b52bc7b9dc2ad0da1d6a2e7d351cb953c971e6fbcbec52479&amp;smart=true&amp;width=768&amp;height=478&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/6N64VXA6YJCE3MTRYM4PE3LYXY.png?auth=ce2656d61bf9173b52bc7b9dc2ad0da1d6a2e7d351cb953c971e6fbcbec52479&amp;smart=true&amp;width=577&amp;height=359&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 580px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/6N64VXA6YJCE3MTRYM4PE3LYXY.png?auth=ce2656d61bf9173b52bc7b9dc2ad0da1d6a2e7d351cb953c971e6fbcbec52479&amp;smart=true&amp;width=420&amp;height=262&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 350px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/6N64VXA6YJCE3MTRYM4PE3LYXY.png?auth=ce2656d61bf9173b52bc7b9dc2ad0da1d6a2e7d351cb953c971e6fbcbec52479&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=218&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 80px)\"><\/source><img alt=\"J.P.Morgan PBI\" class=\"global-image\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"low\" height=\"1196\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/6N64VXA6YJCE3MTRYM4PE3LYXY.png?auth=ce2656d61bf9173b52bc7b9dc2ad0da1d6a2e7d351cb953c971e6fbcbec52479&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=218&amp;quality=85\" width=\"1920\"><\/picture><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"5\"><b>\u201cLa actividad sigue enfrentando importantes vientos en contra. <\/b>La composici\u00f3n sectorial ofrece parte de la explicaci\u00f3n. La miner\u00eda y la producci\u00f3n de energ\u00eda destinadas a la exportaci\u00f3n generan una actividad limitada en los mercados internos, tanto mayoristas como minoristas, lo que implica que el crecimiento de la producci\u00f3n impulsado por estos sectores se traduce solo modestamente en el comercio\u201d, indica un pasaje. <\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-5\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"6\">Seg\u00fan las estimaciones de J.P.Morgan, la industria manufacturera baj\u00f3 3,6% mensual desestacionalizado, la construcci\u00f3n retrocedi\u00f3 4%, el comercio cay\u00f3 5,5% y otros sectores, como agricultura, transporte y servicios financieros, mostraron un desempe\u00f1o por debajo de las previsiones.<\/p>\n<div id=\"fusion-static-enter:raw_html_raw_html8\" style=\"display:none\" data-fusion-component=\"raw_html_raw_html8\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"rawHTML raw_html \"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/G66NBB3NSJEP3NQZBEWLH6LZBQ.jpg?auth=b4e2e5e67f52a32f2dccb6b701cfdd0450b72ce71c6f7dec4c00079e52b6ead5\" alt=\"infografia\" class=\"responsive\"><\/p>\n<style>.responsive {\n width: 100%;\n height: auto;\n}<\/style>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fusion-static-exit:raw_html_raw_html8\" style=\"display:none\" data-fusion-component=\"raw_html_raw_html8\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"7\">El informe se\u00f1al\u00f3 que parte del resultado puede deberse a cuestiones puntuales, como que tuvo julio de este a\u00f1o tuvo un d\u00eda h\u00e1bil menos que el mismo mes de 2025 por el feriado puente del D\u00eda de la Independencia, y que debido al Mundial de F\u00fatbol hubo menos horas trabajadas en algunos sectores, interrupciones del suministro de gas y condiciones clim\u00e1ticas que afectaron a la construcci\u00f3n, la miner\u00eda y los servicios, factores que recientemente tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1alaron miembros del equipo econ\u00f3mico que encabeza Luis Caputo.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_1 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_1\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"8\"><b>El banco ve riesgos a la baja para los pr\u00f3ximos meses<\/b>. Al respecto, advirti\u00f3 que los indicadores disponibles para agosto apuntan a una nueva reducci\u00f3n del nivel de actividad en la industria y la construcci\u00f3n y record\u00f3 que el consumo a\u00fan enfrenta el efecto de una inflaci\u00f3n superior a lo previsto durante el primer trimestre y de una desaceleraci\u00f3n del cr\u00e9dito debido al aumento de la morosidad crediticia. <\/p>\n<div id=\"fusion-static-enter:raw_html_raw_html11\" style=\"display:none\" data-fusion-component=\"raw_html_raw_html11\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"rawHTML raw_html \"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/6LH6FXMR2FBC3OWJ5D2NSGUZGM.jpg?auth=2a2603318fa0c93eac8ba5b091b23c3f4968a1d9c9b74f74a6c8ab0bee8effd8\" alt=\"infografia\" class=\"responsive\"><\/p>\n<style>.responsive {\n width: 100%;\n height: auto;\n}<\/style>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fusion-static-exit:raw_html_raw_html11\" style=\"display:none\" data-fusion-component=\"raw_html_raw_html11\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"9\">\u201cEl patr\u00f3n de avance y retroceso que caracteriz\u00f3 a la actividad durante el primer semestre<b> parece haberse intensificado en julio\u201d<\/b>, enfatiz\u00f3. Esa din\u00e1mica, agreg\u00f3, \u201csesga a\u00fan m\u00e1s a la baja los riesgos de corto plazo\u201d.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_2 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_2\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"10\">Otros datos citados son que el empleo urbano se mantuvo casi sin cambios en julio, despu\u00e9s de cinco meses de bajas, y qued\u00f3 1,1% por debajo del nivel de hace un a\u00f1o. Seg\u00fan J.P.Morgan, ese cuadro limita una recuperaci\u00f3n del gasto de los hogares.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"text-align-left vertical-align-top line-height-100 header headline-class-h2 headline\" id=\"2027:-crecimiento-exportador-consumo-privado-debil\">2027: crecimiento exportador, consumo privado d\u00e9bil<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"11\">Para 2027, J.P. Morgan <b>mantiene una proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento de 2,5%<\/b> apoyado en un aumento del 11% de las exportaciones y aumento del consumo privado de solo 0,4%, pero espera que la inflaci\u00f3n contin\u00fae moder\u00e1ndose y que el cr\u00e9dito en moneda local extienda la recuperaci\u00f3n iniciada en el segundo trimestre. Tambi\u00e9n prev\u00e9 condiciones m\u00e1s flexibles para los pr\u00e9stamos en d\u00f3lares. Pero, consigna, el crecimiento no se trasladar\u00e1 de forma pareja a todos los sectores.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_3 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_3\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"12\">\u201cLas perspectivas de crecimiento probablemente contin\u00faen siendo muy desiguales\u201d, dice el informe. La miner\u00eda, la agricultura y las actividades vinculadas con las exportaciones tendr\u00edan un mayor aporte, mientras que los sectores orientados al mercado interno seguir\u00edan condicionados por la demanda. Adem\u00e1s, se\u00f1alan los autores, \u201c<b>es probable que persista la doble restricci\u00f3n de pol\u00edticas monetarias y fiscales contractivas<\/b>\u201d, que mantendr\u00edan ese sesgo incluso a medida que se acerca el proceso electoral.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"13\">Al cabo de esa descripci\u00f3n, el banco norteamericano actualiz\u00f3 sus proyecciones a una ca\u00edda trimestral del 4% en el tercer trimestre y a un crecimiento anual del PBI de 1,5% este a\u00f1o y del 2,5% para el a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo. <\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_4 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_4\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"text-align-left vertical-align-top line-height-100 header headline-class-h2 headline\" id=\"el-aumento-de-la-pobreza\">El aumento de la pobreza<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"14\">El informe tambi\u00e9n destac\u00f3 el <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/economia\/2026\/09\/24\/la-pobreza-subio-al-323-en-el-primer-semestre-de-ano-y-afecto-a-155-millones-de-personas\/\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/economia\/2026\/09\/24\/la-pobreza-subio-al-323-en-el-primer-semestre-de-ano-y-afecto-a-155-millones-de-personas\/\">aumento de la pobreza (al 32,3%)<\/a>, que asoci\u00f3 al aumento del ritmo de la inflaci\u00f3n en el primer trimestre del a\u00f1o, en que la canasta b\u00e1sica total se encareci\u00f3 19,6% respecto del \u00faltimo trimestre del a\u00f1o pasado, mientras el ingreso per capita familiar creci\u00f3 11,5%, m\u00e1s de ocho puntos menos. Destaca que ese nivel de pobreza es 0,7 puntos porcentuales superior a la del primer semestre de 2025 y 4,1 puntos superior a la del segundo. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"15\">Por \u00faltimo, el informe destaca que el aumento de la pobreza y la ca\u00edda de la actividad coincidieron con un alza del riesgo pa\u00eds. El indicador de J.P. Morgan super\u00f3 los 600 puntos b\u00e1sicos durante septiembre, en un contexto de menor acumulaci\u00f3n de reservas y dudas sobre el financiamiento de los vencimientos de deuda.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_5 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_5\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EscucharPuntos claveResumen 27 Sep, 2026 04:11 p. m. EST Guardar J.P. Morgan, el banco m\u00e1s grande de los Estados Unidos, redujo a 1,5% su proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento para la econom\u00eda argentina en 2026 luego de que la actividad se desplomara un 2,9% en julio respecto de junio. \u201cEsper\u00e1bamos un dato d\u00e9bil de actividad, consistente con [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23561,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28236"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28236\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23561"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}