{"id":28109,"date":"2026-09-26T09:58:46","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:58:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/?p=28109"},"modified":"2026-09-26T09:58:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:58:46","slug":"contexto-externo-senales-internas-y-menor-disponibilidad-de-dolares-por-que-el-riesgo-pais-volvio-a-superar-los-600-puntos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/?p=28109","title":{"rendered":"Contexto externo, se\u00f1ales internas y menor disponibilidad de d\u00f3lares: por qu\u00e9 el riesgo pa\u00eds volvi\u00f3 a superar los 600 puntos"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"ai-tools\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"ai-tools-item\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-busy=\"true\" disabled id=\"ai-tool-listen\"><span class=\"ai-tools-icon\"><svg width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M14.99 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class=\"ai-tools-label\">Escuchar<\/span><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"ai-tools-item\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-busy=\"true\" disabled id=\"ai-tool-keypoints\"><span class=\"ai-tools-icon\"><svg width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M5.99679 1H12.4609C13.0887 1 13.6 1.52731 13.6 2.17489V13.8251C13.6 14.4727 13.0887 15 12.4609 15H3.53913C2.91126 15 2.39999 14.4727 2.39999 13.8251V9.19802V4.57092L5.99679 1Z\" stroke=\"#e46211\" stroke-width=\"1.2\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"><\/path><path d=\"M2.39999 5.38502H6.94416V3.94555V1\" stroke=\"#e46211\" stroke-width=\"1.2\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"><\/path><path d=\"M10.491 12.2L5.50657 12.2C5.32834 12.2 5.2037 11.8667 5.20008 11.517C5.19587 11.1484 5.32111 10.8 5.50657 10.8L10.4813 10.8C10.6632 10.8 10.795 11.105 10.7998 11.4804C10.8047 11.8341 10.6842 12.2 10.491 12.2Z\" fill=\"#e46211\"><\/path><path d=\"M10.491 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srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4STEFNLM2VDTJL7RHBMHDXALRE.png?auth=77d601091d4176cd4fcba667fea7aeb16c70874607958b6d6820550e6ba07502&amp;smart=true&amp;width=992&amp;height=661&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 1000px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4STEFNLM2VDTJL7RHBMHDXALRE.png?auth=77d601091d4176cd4fcba667fea7aeb16c70874607958b6d6820550e6ba07502&amp;smart=true&amp;width=768&amp;height=512&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4STEFNLM2VDTJL7RHBMHDXALRE.png?auth=77d601091d4176cd4fcba667fea7aeb16c70874607958b6d6820550e6ba07502&amp;smart=true&amp;width=577&amp;height=385&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 580px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4STEFNLM2VDTJL7RHBMHDXALRE.png?auth=77d601091d4176cd4fcba667fea7aeb16c70874607958b6d6820550e6ba07502&amp;smart=true&amp;width=420&amp;height=280&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 350px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4STEFNLM2VDTJL7RHBMHDXALRE.png?auth=77d601091d4176cd4fcba667fea7aeb16c70874607958b6d6820550e6ba07502&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=233&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 80px)\"><\/source><img alt=\"Pantalla digital con gr\u00e1fico de l\u00ednea en rojo mostrando un descenso, n\u00fameros y texto rojos, y un fondo borroso de sala de operaciones.\" class=\"global-image\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/4STEFNLM2VDTJL7RHBMHDXALRE.png?auth=77d601091d4176cd4fcba667fea7aeb16c70874607958b6d6820550e6ba07502&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=233&amp;quality=85\" width=\"1536\"><\/picture><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-container display_flex sharebar-new\" style=\"opacity:1\">\n<div class=\"share-bar-article-date-container \"><span class=\"sharebar-article-date\">26 Sep, 2026 08:36 a. m. EST<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-buttons-container display_flex\">\n<div aria-label=\"Guardar\" class=\"sharebar-buttons button-save\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"9\" height=\"12\" viewbox=\"0 0 8 10\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"saved-icon saved\"><path d=\"M6.64286 0.5V9.31687L4.1116 7.16407L4.11106 7.16361C3.79894 6.89891 3.34392 6.89891 3.03179 7.16361L3.03126 7.16407L0.5 9.31687V0.5H6.64286Z\"><\/path><\/svg><span class=\"buttons-save-text\">Guardar<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-buttons-separator\"><\/div>\n<p><button class=\"sharemenu-buttons display_flex\" aria-label=\"Compartir en Telegram\"><svg width=\"38\" height=\"38\" viewbox=\"0 0 38 38\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><rect x=\"0.5\" y=\"0.5\" width=\"37\" height=\"37\" rx=\"18.5\" fill=\"white\"><\/rect><rect x=\"0.5\" y=\"0.5\" width=\"37\" height=\"37\" rx=\"18.5\" stroke=\"#C2C2C2\"><\/rect><path d=\"M24.9696 12.5511L10.3405 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15.0383 17.6243C15.1805 18.3619 15.5983 18.9663 16.0426 19.5618C16.887 20.6638 17.8646 21.6237 19.1622 22.1925C19.7932 22.4769 20.4331 22.7613 21.1441 22.7613C21.2685 22.7613 21.393 22.7613 21.5085 22.7346C22.4506 22.5391 23.1172 22.0058 23.0816 21.0193C23.0816 20.9216 23.0194 20.7794 22.9483 20.7438C22.3973 20.4594 21.8462 20.2017 21.2863 19.9439Z\" fill=\"#555555\"><\/path><path d=\"M26.9482 17.8724C26.3972 13.4642 22.1401 10.3447 17.7229 11.1179C12.6481 11.9977 9.71521 17.2859 11.6883 21.9963C12.1948 22.6629 12.0615 23.3472 11.8216 24.0849C11.5105 25.027 11.2794 26.0046 11.0039 27C11.1194 26.9733 11.1994 26.9644 11.2794 26.9378C12.5059 26.6178 13.7324 26.3068 14.9411 25.9868C15.1544 25.9335 15.3144 25.9602 15.5099 26.0579C17.1719 26.8667 18.9227 27.0978 20.718 26.7067C24.833 25.7913 27.4548 22.0496 26.9305 17.8902L26.9482 17.8724ZM20.0515 25.4624C18.4784 25.7113 17.003 25.3913 15.6166 24.6003C15.5099 24.5381 15.3411 24.5115 15.2077 24.547C14.4612 24.7248 13.7146 24.9292 12.9147 25.1336C13.1192 24.3693 13.3058 23.6672 13.5102 22.9473C13.5635 22.7606 13.5369 22.6273 13.4391 22.4673C11.0039 18.5479 13.1014 13.5442 17.6163 12.5043C21.2868 11.6511 25.0285 14.1841 25.5884 17.908C26.1395 21.5519 23.6954 24.8936 20.0515 25.4624Z\" fill=\"#555555\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"1\">El <b>riesgo pa\u00eds argentino<\/b> super\u00f3 los 600 puntos b\u00e1sicos y alcanz\u00f3 su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde principios de mayo de 2026, en una suba que un reciente informe privado atribuy\u00f3 a dos focos de presi\u00f3n: un contexto financiero internacional m\u00e1s adverso y se\u00f1ales locales sobre reservas, tipo de cambio y financiamiento del Tesoro para 2027.<\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-1\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"2\">Seg\u00fan la consultora PxQ, el alza responde a una combinaci\u00f3n de tasas m\u00e1s altas en Estados Unidos, mayor volatilidad para los mercados emergentes y factores internos que reabrieron dudas sobre la disponibilidad de d\u00f3lares. El informe tambi\u00e9n puso el foco en las menores compras de reservas del <b>Banco Central de la Rep\u00fablica Argentina (BCRA)<\/b> y en las dificultades para sostener el esquema de financiamiento previsto para 2027.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-inline ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"inline\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"3\">PxQ sostiene que la suba \u201cparece responder a una combinaci\u00f3n de un contexto financiero internacional algo menos favorable para los mercados emergentes con se\u00f1ales dom\u00e9sticas que volvieron a poner el foco sobre la disponibilidad de d\u00f3lares y las fuentes de financiamiento del Tesoro para 2027\u201d. El alza del indicador volvi\u00f3 a presionar la valuaci\u00f3n de los bonos y la posibilidad de recuperar acceso al mercado internacional de capitales.<\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-3\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"fusion-static-enter:raw_html_raw_html4\" style=\"display:none\" data-fusion-component=\"raw_html_raw_html4\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"rawHTML raw_html \">\n<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"bf913435-3982-439f-88a1-959711b5e430\" data-type=\"interactive\" data-title=\"Riesgo Pa\u00eds 2024\"><\/div>\n<p><script>!function(e,n,i,s){var d=\"InfogramEmbeds\";var o=e.getElementsByTagName(n)[0];if(window[d]&&window[d].initialized)window[d].process&&window[d].process();else if(!e.getElementById(i)){var r=e.createElement(n);r.async=1,r.id=i,r.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,\"script\",\"infogram-async\",\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script><\/div>\n<div id=\"fusion-static-exit:raw_html_raw_html4\" style=\"display:none\" data-fusion-component=\"raw_html_raw_html4\"><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"text-align-left vertical-align-top line-height-100 header headline-class-h2 headline\" id=\"el-frente-externo-encarece-el-financiamiento\">El frente externo encarece el financiamiento<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"4\">El informe de la consultora de <b>Emmanuel \u00c1lvarez Agis <\/b>atribuy\u00f3 parte del movimiento a la suba de la tasa libre de riesgo en EE.UU. y a la expectativa de que la Reserva Federal mantenga una pol\u00edtica monetaria m\u00e1s restrictiva. Ese cuadro eleva el costo de financiamiento para los mercados emergentes, aun sin un deterioro espec\u00edfico de los fundamentos argentinos.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline_2 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-inline ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"inline_2\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"5\">El informe remarca que el acceso al mercado internacional pod\u00eda ofrecer flexibilidad al Programa Financiero 2027, pero el movimiento reciente fue en sentido contrario al requerido para emitir deuda externa a tasas razonables. De hecho, estimaba necesaria una compresi\u00f3n adicional de entre 70 y 100 puntos b\u00e1sicos cuando el riesgo pa\u00eds se ubicaba en 400 puntos.<\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-5\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"6\">La consultora agreg\u00f3 que el calendario electoral de Brasil y EE.UU. puede sumar volatilidad en los pr\u00f3ximos meses. En el caso de <b>Brasil<\/b>, se\u00f1al\u00f3 adem\u00e1s su peso como socio comercial de Argentina y como referencia financiera regional, con capacidad de trasladar tensi\u00f3n a los activos latinoamericanos y a los tipos de cambio de la regi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_1 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_1\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"text-align-left vertical-align-top line-height-100 header headline-class-h2 headline\" id=\"estrategia-cambiaria-y-reservas\">Estrategia cambiaria y reservas<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"7\">En el plano interno, PxQ se\u00f1al\u00f3 que durante septiembre el <b>BCRA<\/b> registr\u00f3 el menor nivel de compras de reservas del a\u00f1o. El promedio fue de <b>USD 14 millones<\/b> por d\u00eda, por debajo de los US$ 38 millones diarios de agosto y lejos de los USD 137 millones diarios de abril a junio, din\u00e1mica que refleja una prioridad oficial por la estabilidad nominal del tipo de cambio como ancla contra la inflaci\u00f3n. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"8\">\u201cLa buena noticia -dice- es que la acumulaci\u00f3n fue sustantiva, que el BCRA cuenta con instrumentos para otorgar cobertura y que tal vez el gobierno siga contando con el apoyo de los EEUU para evitar que el pa\u00eds corra contra su propia moneda. Pero faltando un trimestre para el a\u00f1o electoral, no parece que vaya a ser \u201cun paseo por el parque\u201d, expresi\u00f3n que <b>Luis Caputo<\/b>, us\u00f3 en abril pasado para describir el trayecto hasta las elecciones 2027. <\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_2 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_2\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"visual__image\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/XCROJDOT3BDP5JL4HTFYWLRPUY.jpg?auth=0b7fc8869b36aa1780f3ae35e3ff1d72a8cd83fae9b3f85ac4560591cc848f66&amp;smart=true&amp;width=992&amp;height=558&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 1000px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/XCROJDOT3BDP5JL4HTFYWLRPUY.jpg?auth=0b7fc8869b36aa1780f3ae35e3ff1d72a8cd83fae9b3f85ac4560591cc848f66&amp;smart=true&amp;width=768&amp;height=432&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/XCROJDOT3BDP5JL4HTFYWLRPUY.jpg?auth=0b7fc8869b36aa1780f3ae35e3ff1d72a8cd83fae9b3f85ac4560591cc848f66&amp;smart=true&amp;width=577&amp;height=325&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 580px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/XCROJDOT3BDP5JL4HTFYWLRPUY.jpg?auth=0b7fc8869b36aa1780f3ae35e3ff1d72a8cd83fae9b3f85ac4560591cc848f66&amp;smart=true&amp;width=420&amp;height=236&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 350px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/XCROJDOT3BDP5JL4HTFYWLRPUY.jpg?auth=0b7fc8869b36aa1780f3ae35e3ff1d72a8cd83fae9b3f85ac4560591cc848f66&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=197&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 80px)\"><\/source><img alt=\"luis caputo scott bessent g20\" class=\"global-image\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"low\" height=\"1080\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/XCROJDOT3BDP5JL4HTFYWLRPUY.jpg?auth=0b7fc8869b36aa1780f3ae35e3ff1d72a8cd83fae9b3f85ac4560591cc848f66&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=197&amp;quality=85\" width=\"1920\"><\/picture><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"9\">El reporte indic\u00f3 que la cotizaci\u00f3n oficial avanz\u00f3 <b>0,6%<\/b> en lo que va de septiembre de 2026, mientras se desaceler\u00f3 la acumulaci\u00f3n de divisas y que esa estrategia abre dudas sobre su costo en reservas de cara a 2027, sobre todo sin control de cambios para personas f\u00edsicas y con una demanda de pesos que, seg\u00fan el informe, no reacciona. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"10\">El documento a\u00f1adi\u00f3 que comprar reservas en septiembre es una se\u00f1al favorable por la estacionalidad del mercado local, pero sostuvo que el ritmo actual reduce el stock de d\u00f3lares disponible para atender vencimientos futuros. Y en otro dardo al esquema oficial nota en un pasaje: \u201cel abuso del ancla cambiaria para reducir la inflaci\u00f3n env\u00eda una se\u00f1al muy compleja a los tenedores de bonos: que las divisas se utilizan para mejorar las chances del oficialismo de ganar y no la chance del bonista de cobrar\u201d. <\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_3 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_3\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"text-align-left vertical-align-top line-height-100 header headline-class-h2 headline\" id=\"dudas-sobre-el-financiamiento-de-2027\">Dudas sobre el financiamiento de 2027<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"11\">El Programa Financiero 2027 contempla necesidades por <b>USD 24.900 millones<\/b> el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. Entre las fuentes previstas figuran USD 4.900 millones por compras de d\u00f3lares del Tesoro al BCRA y USD 5.000 millones por emisiones de Bonares en el mercado local.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"12\">El informe plante\u00f3 que ambas fuentes aparecen hoy m\u00e1s restringidas. Por un lado, cuanto menos compre reservas el Banco Central, menor ser\u00e1 la disponibilidad de divisas que luego podr\u00e1 adquirir el Tesoro.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"13\">Por otro, el aumento del rendimiento de los Bonares encareci\u00f3 la colocaci\u00f3n de deuda en moneda extranjera dentro del mercado dom\u00e9stico. PxQ subray\u00f3 que \u201cel aumento del rendimiento de los Bonares en el mercado secundario dificulta la capacidad de colocar US$ 5.000mill por esta v\u00eda\u201d.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_4 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_4\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"14\">La consultora a\u00f1adi\u00f3 que el Tesoro dej\u00f3 de usar esos instrumentos en sus \u00faltimas licitaciones, en un contexto de mayores exigencias del mercado para los bonos 2028 y 2029. El reporte tambi\u00e9n sostuvo que \u201cel problema radica en un modelo macroecon\u00f3mico que estabiliza las variables financieras pero desestabiliza las reales\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"text-align-left vertical-align-top line-height-100 header headline-class-h2 headline\" id=\"chances-de-recesion\">Chances de recesi\u00f3n<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"15\">PxQ mencion\u00f3 adem\u00e1s mayores chances de recesi\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica por el deterioro de los indicadores adelantados del tercer trimestre. Sum\u00f3 otro elemento de tensi\u00f3n al se\u00f1alar que, en julio, las personas f\u00edsicas compraron <b>USD 3.000 millones<\/b> para ahorro.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"16\">Ese dato aparece en un escenario en el que Argentina se acerca al a\u00f1o electoral sin control de cambios para ese segmento y con riesgo de un deterioro adicional en los precios de los bonos, tanto en pesos como en d\u00f3lares. PxQ advirti\u00f3 que, si el mercado internacional sigue menos receptivo, las reservas no se acumulan al ritmo esperado y el mercado local exige rendimientos m\u00e1s altos, el Tesoro quedar\u00e1 cada vez m\u00e1s atado a las fuentes dom\u00e9sticas para cubrir 2027.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_5 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_5\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_5\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"17\">Esa secuencia, seg\u00fan la consultora, puede trabar a\u00fan m\u00e1s la baja del riesgo soberano y estrechar el margen financiero del programa. Tambi\u00e9n puede reforzar la dependencia del Tesoro de las reservas del BCRA y del mercado local si sigue cerrado el acceso al financiamiento externo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EscucharPuntos claveResumen 26 Sep, 2026 08:36 a. m. EST Guardar El riesgo pa\u00eds argentino super\u00f3 los 600 puntos b\u00e1sicos y alcanz\u00f3 su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde principios de mayo de 2026, en una suba que un reciente informe privado atribuy\u00f3 a dos focos de presi\u00f3n: un contexto financiero internacional m\u00e1s adverso y se\u00f1ales locales sobre [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18407,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28109\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18407"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}