{"id":19663,"date":"2026-07-30T04:20:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T07:20:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/?p=19663"},"modified":"2026-07-30T04:20:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T07:20:28","slug":"el-riesgo-pais-vuelve-a-rozar-los-450-puntos-hay-causas-externas-que-lo-impulsan-pero-tambien-factores-locales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/?p=19663","title":{"rendered":"El riesgo pa\u00eds vuelve a rozar los 450 puntos: hay causas externas que lo impulsan, pero tambi\u00e9n factores locales"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"visual__image image-initial-width\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/LWYLSNQALJF2HCULC4RRWD7BVI.JPG?auth=c492b16ea64169b0a03c463370999d387b0ad199ecf06696def5394c5a5d5ec2&amp;smart=true&amp;width=992&amp;height=661&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 1000px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/LWYLSNQALJF2HCULC4RRWD7BVI.JPG?auth=c492b16ea64169b0a03c463370999d387b0ad199ecf06696def5394c5a5d5ec2&amp;smart=true&amp;width=768&amp;height=512&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/LWYLSNQALJF2HCULC4RRWD7BVI.JPG?auth=c492b16ea64169b0a03c463370999d387b0ad199ecf06696def5394c5a5d5ec2&amp;smart=true&amp;width=577&amp;height=385&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 580px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/LWYLSNQALJF2HCULC4RRWD7BVI.JPG?auth=c492b16ea64169b0a03c463370999d387b0ad199ecf06696def5394c5a5d5ec2&amp;smart=true&amp;width=420&amp;height=280&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 350px)\"><\/source><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/LWYLSNQALJF2HCULC4RRWD7BVI.JPG?auth=c492b16ea64169b0a03c463370999d387b0ad199ecf06696def5394c5a5d5ec2&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=233&amp;quality=85\" media=\"(min-width: 80px)\"><\/source><img alt=\"El riesgo pa\u00eds volvi\u00f3 a acercarse a los 450 puntos b\u00e1sicos tras haber estado cerca de perforar las 400 unidades. (REUTERS\/Tomas Cuesta)\" class=\"global-image\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"3333\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/resizer\/v2\/LWYLSNQALJF2HCULC4RRWD7BVI.JPG?auth=c492b16ea64169b0a03c463370999d387b0ad199ecf06696def5394c5a5d5ec2&amp;smart=true&amp;width=350&amp;height=233&amp;quality=85\" width=\"5000\"><\/picture><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-container display_flex sharebar-new\" style=\"opacity:1\">\n<div class=\"share-bar-article-date-container \"><span class=\"sharebar-article-date\">30 Jul, 2026 02:08 a. m. EST<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-buttons-container display_flex\">\n<div aria-label=\"Guardar\" class=\"sharebar-buttons button-save\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg width=\"9\" height=\"12\" viewbox=\"0 0 8 10\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"saved-icon saved\"><path d=\"M6.64286 0.5V9.31687L4.1116 7.16407L4.11106 7.16361C3.79894 6.89891 3.34392 6.89891 3.03179 7.16361L3.03126 7.16407L0.5 9.31687V0.5H6.64286Z\"><\/path><\/svg><span class=\"buttons-save-text\">Guardar<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"sharebar-buttons-separator\"><\/div>\n<p><button class=\"sharemenu-buttons display_flex\" aria-label=\"Compartir en Telegram\"><svg width=\"38\" height=\"38\" viewbox=\"0 0 38 38\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><rect x=\"0.5\" y=\"0.5\" width=\"37\" height=\"37\" rx=\"18.5\" fill=\"white\"><\/rect><rect x=\"0.5\" y=\"0.5\" width=\"37\" height=\"37\" rx=\"18.5\" stroke=\"#C2C2C2\"><\/rect><path d=\"M24.9696 12.5511L10.3405 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15.0383 17.6243C15.1805 18.3619 15.5983 18.9663 16.0426 19.5618C16.887 20.6638 17.8646 21.6237 19.1622 22.1925C19.7932 22.4769 20.4331 22.7613 21.1441 22.7613C21.2685 22.7613 21.393 22.7613 21.5085 22.7346C22.4506 22.5391 23.1172 22.0058 23.0816 21.0193C23.0816 20.9216 23.0194 20.7794 22.9483 20.7438C22.3973 20.4594 21.8462 20.2017 21.2863 19.9439Z\" fill=\"#555555\"><\/path><path d=\"M26.9482 17.8724C26.3972 13.4642 22.1401 10.3447 17.7229 11.1179C12.6481 11.9977 9.71521 17.2859 11.6883 21.9963C12.1948 22.6629 12.0615 23.3472 11.8216 24.0849C11.5105 25.027 11.2794 26.0046 11.0039 27C11.1194 26.9733 11.1994 26.9644 11.2794 26.9378C12.5059 26.6178 13.7324 26.3068 14.9411 25.9868C15.1544 25.9335 15.3144 25.9602 15.5099 26.0579C17.1719 26.8667 18.9227 27.0978 20.718 26.7067C24.833 25.7913 27.4548 22.0496 26.9305 17.8902L26.9482 17.8724ZM20.0515 25.4624C18.4784 25.7113 17.003 25.3913 15.6166 24.6003C15.5099 24.5381 15.3411 24.5115 15.2077 24.547C14.4612 24.7248 13.7146 24.9292 12.9147 25.1336C13.1192 24.3693 13.3058 23.6672 13.5102 22.9473C13.5635 22.7606 13.5369 22.6273 13.4391 22.4673C11.0039 18.5479 13.1014 13.5442 17.6163 12.5043C21.2868 11.6511 25.0285 14.1841 25.5884 17.908C26.1395 21.5519 23.6954 24.8936 20.0515 25.4624Z\" fill=\"#555555\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"1\">La expectativa de un<b> <\/b><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/economia\/2026\/07\/29\/jornada-financiera-wall-street-cayo-con-fuerza-golpeo-a-las-acciones-argentinas-y-subio-el-riesgo-pais\/\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/economia\/2026\/07\/29\/jornada-financiera-wall-street-cayo-con-fuerza-golpeo-a-las-acciones-argentinas-y-subio-el-riesgo-pais\/\"><b>riesgo pa\u00eds<\/b><\/a> perforando los 400 puntos b\u00e1sicos, que parec\u00eda algo casi seguro hace solo un par de meses, repentinamente se evapor\u00f3. Ahora este indicador <b>rebot\u00f3 a niveles de 445 unidades<\/b>, reflejando dos situaciones: un <b>deterioro de los bonos argentinos<\/b> en d\u00f3lares y tambi\u00e9n la solidez de la tasa larga de los bonos norteamericanos.<\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-1\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"2\">A la hora de buscar las razones, en buena medida \u00e9stas provienen del mercado internacional. Con ca\u00eddas bastante bruscas sobre todo en el <b>mercado tecnol\u00f3gico de Estados Unidos<\/b> (especialmente en las empresas muy relacionadas al sector de inteligencia artificial), la consecuencia fue un castigo a los activos considerados m\u00e1s riesgosos.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-inline ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"inline\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"3\">Los bonos argentinos est\u00e1n dentro de ese grupo y sufrieron ca\u00eddas cercanas al 1 por ciento. Nada muy fuera de los normal para este contexto de Wall Street, pero que se suma a varios d\u00edas ya m\u00e1s flojos, especialmente para los t\u00edtulos de mayor duraci\u00f3n. Ayer el Tesoro licit\u00f3 un <b>nuevo tramo del Bonar 29 <\/b>y consigui\u00f3 309 millones de d\u00f3lares. Una colocaci\u00f3n discreta, que muestra que el apetito por deuda local se mantiene relativamente acotado.<\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-3\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"4\">La decisi\u00f3n de la <b>Reserva Federal <\/b>de <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/estados-unidos\/2026\/07\/29\/la-reserva-federal-de-estados-unidos-mantuvo-sin-cambios-las-tasas-de-interes-de-referencia\/\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/estados-unidos\/2026\/07\/29\/la-reserva-federal-de-estados-unidos-mantuvo-sin-cambios-las-tasas-de-interes-de-referencia\/\"><b>mantener las tasas sin cambios<\/b><\/a><b> <\/b>no fue del todo bien recibida por el mercado. En realidad, los inversores se inquietaron en la conferencia de prensa posterior y que el voto directorio fue dividido: nueve votaron a favor de dejar todo igual y tres consideraron que era el momento para subir 0,25 puntos b\u00e1sicos, pero se impuso la mayor\u00eda.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline_2 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-inline ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"inline_2\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/inline_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fusion-static-enter:raw_html_raw_html5\" style=\"display:none\" data-fusion-component=\"raw_html_raw_html5\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"rawHTML raw_html \">\n<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"bf913435-3982-439f-88a1-959711b5e430\" data-type=\"interactive\" data-title=\"Riesgo Pa\u00eds 2024\"><\/div>\n<p><script>!function(e,n,i,s){var d=\"InfogramEmbeds\";var o=e.getElementsByTagName(n)[0];if(window[d]&&window[d].initialized)window[d].process&&window[d].process();else if(!e.getElementById(i)){var r=e.createElement(n);r.async=1,r.id=i,r.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,\"script\",\"infogram-async\",\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script><\/div>\n<div id=\"fusion-static-exit:raw_html_raw_html5\" style=\"display:none\" data-fusion-component=\"raw_html_raw_html5\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"5\">Hubo<b> ca\u00eddas de m\u00e1s de 2,2% del \u00edndice Dow Jones <\/b>(que agrupa a los papeles l\u00edderes del mercado) y del 1,7% del Nasdaq, que agrupa a las principales tecnol\u00f3gicas. En este escenario era casi imposible que los activos argentinos pudieran mantenerse a flote. Hubo ca\u00eddas en bonos y tambi\u00e9n en acciones argentinas que cotizan en Wall Street, aunque con p\u00e9rdidas marginales.<\/p>\n<div class=\"marfeel-recommender marfeel-recommender-5\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"6\">Pero no toda la presi\u00f3n sobre los bonos y el riesgo pa\u00eds proviene de afuera. El<b> contexto local<\/b> tambi\u00e9n empez\u00f3 a generar <b>mayor preocupaci\u00f3n entre los inversores<\/b>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_1 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_1\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"7\">Los<b> \u00faltimos indicadores<\/b> <b>de aceptaci\u00f3n <\/b>del Gobierno vinieron con <b>fuertes bajas<\/b>, algo que<b> inquieta al mercado<\/b> y, en particular, a los tenedores de bonos. Tanto el <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/politica\/2026\/07\/27\/la-confianza-en-el-gobierno-volvio-a-caer-en-julio-segun-un-estudio-de-la-universidad-di-tella\/\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/politica\/2026\/07\/27\/la-confianza-en-el-gobierno-volvio-a-caer-en-julio-segun-un-estudio-de-la-universidad-di-tella\/\">\u00cdndice de Confianza en el Gobierno<\/a> (que elabora la Universidad Di Tella) como el de confianza ciudadana arrojaron en julio ca\u00eddas muy significativas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"8\">Se trata de dos indicadores claves, que muestran un deterioro tanto de la visi\u00f3n del \u201c<b>c\u00edrculo rojo<\/b>\u201d como del p\u00fablico. En otras palabras, <b>ni la baja de la inflaci\u00f3n, la estabilidad cambiaria y el r\u00e9cord de exportaciones terminan de trasladarse al bolsillo ni al consumo<\/b>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_2 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_2\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fusion-static-enter:raw_html_raw_html10\" style=\"display:none\" data-fusion-component=\"raw_html_raw_html10\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"rawHTML raw_html \">\n<p><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=UTF-8\"><\/p>\n<p><meta name=\"viewport\" 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class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"9\">En la medida que no haya una mejora del consumo interno ser\u00e1 dif\u00edcil que el Gobierno logre una mayor aceptaci\u00f3n y despeje el escenario electoral.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"10\">Si la proyecci\u00f3n para las elecciones del a\u00f1o que viene no le da una diferencia significativa al Gobierno, el trayecto hacia las elecciones generar\u00e1 no solo volatilidad cambiaria sino en los activos nominados en d\u00f3lares. El impacto podr\u00eda sentirse especialmente en los bonos dolarizados.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_3 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_3\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"11\">\u00bf<b>Es razonable esperar un riesgo pa\u00eds en torno a 400 puntos<\/b> o incluso menos si las elecciones vienen ajustadas o hay elevadas posibilidades de ir a un balotaje? Todo indica que en ese escenario los bonos sufrir\u00edan significativamente. El a\u00f1o pasado adem\u00e1s del salto cambiario el riesgo pa\u00eds trep\u00f3 a m\u00e1s de 1.100 unidades. Todo eso fue antes que La Libertad Avanza gane las elecciones legislativas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph\" data-paragraph-number=\"12\">La mejora de la calificaci\u00f3n por parte de las tres calificadoras m\u00e1s importantes le dio un envi\u00f3n a la deuda argentina y m\u00e1s inversores se animaron a comprar. Pero ahora ese impulso parece haberse agotado. Ahora la evoluci\u00f3n de los bonos depender\u00e1 de una mejora en el clima internacional, pero tambi\u00e9n ser\u00e1n necesarias algunas se\u00f1ales que muestren una mayor consolidaci\u00f3n del gobierno a nivel local.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad_4 ad-wrapper dfpAd ad-1-al-6 ad-text ad-component-container\" style=\"--ad-shell-height:250px;--ad-shell-width:300px\" data-ad-wrapper=\"arcad\" data-ad-type=\"ad_4\" data-ad-slot=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\" data-ad-container=\"dfp\" data-ad-slot-name=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\">\n<p class=\"ad-shell-label\">PUBLICIDAD<\/p>\n<div id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\" class=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4 arcad ad-slot-node ad-slot-node--boxed\" data-ad-slot-id=\"infobae\/economia\/nota\/ad_4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>30 Jul, 2026 02:08 a. m. EST Guardar La expectativa de un riesgo pa\u00eds perforando los 400 puntos b\u00e1sicos, que parec\u00eda algo casi seguro hace solo un par de meses, repentinamente se evapor\u00f3. Ahora este indicador rebot\u00f3 a niveles de 445 unidades, reflejando dos situaciones: un deterioro de los bonos argentinos en d\u00f3lares y tambi\u00e9n [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19664,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19663"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19663\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19664"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cliente1.publisher.highstack.com.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}